Currently, under the backdrop of green development, the global trend for new energy vehicles is promising. With the increasing urgency of climate action, countries worldwide are viewing the development of new energy vehicles as a crucial means to reduce transportation carbon emissions. Overall, the global new energy vehicle market is experiencing a "triple acceleration" trend: the market is expanding rapidly, technology is iterating quickly, and functionality is evolving at a fast pace. It is projected that by 2030, the penetration rate of new energy passenger vehicles will reach 50%.
At the inaugural Global New Energy Vehicle Cooperation Development Forum (GNEV2024) held on the 28th, Zhang Yongwei, Vice Chairman and Secretary-General of the China Electric Vehicle One Hundred People's Association, made the above judgment.
Zhang Yongwei is optimistic about the prospects for global new energy vehicles. He mentioned that there is still room for technological progress and development, providing a solid foundation for the rapid promotion and popularization of new energy vehicles. It is expected that technological iteration will drive the accelerated global adoption of new energy vehicles. Zhang further explained during his speech that the core of technological progress lies in the continuous decline of global lithium battery costs. Besides low-cost batteries, by 2030, the industry may witness a breakthrough in the industrialization of solid-state batteries, achieving mass production of batteries with high energy density and safety. Moreover, the costs of purchasing new energy vehicles, driving range, charging efficiency, intelligent configurations, and more continue to improve, catering to an increasing number of niche areas and markets, leading to an enhanced user experience.
In terms of the main directions of technological progress, Zhang Yongwei believes there are four main aspects: the iteration of electrification technology, the improvement of intelligent levels, the enhancement of manufacturing processes, and the practical application of new technologies such as artificial intelligence. He notes that the application of new technologies represented by big data, large models, and powerful computing in research and development, production, and products should be particularly emphasized.
Discussing the new characteristics of China's new energy vehicle development, Zhang Yongwei believes that the Chinese new energy vehicle industry has transitioned from the nurturing phase to the mature phase, with diverse technological routes flourishing, continuous progress in industry and technology, and the entry of Chinese electric vehicles into a stage of large-scale development, highlighting the benefits of green development. "By 2023, the cumulative carbon reduction of China's new energy vehicles will exceed 80 million tons, and it is estimated that the national carbon reduction of new energy vehicles will surpass 100 million tons in 2024. Our country is vigorously promoting the development of renewable energy. Currently, new energy vehicles and new power systems have become the best match. In this way, collaborative interactions through orderly charging, vehicle-to-grid (V2G), light storage charging and swapping, among various methods, can also create significant carbon reduction benefits."
Zhang Yongwei further illustrated that China's charging infrastructure is continuously improving, with an expected breakthrough of over 14 million charging piles by 2024. New technologies and projects such as 800V high-voltage fast charging, integrated renewable energy stations, and battery swapping will accelerate implementation. In terms of vehicles, in addition to electrification, intelligence has become a key focus, with rapid promotion of single vehicle intelligent technology and vehicle-road-cloud integration. Currently, L2 assisted driving and intelligent parking are becoming standard features, with the gradual introduction of "mapless" city NOA by 2024. Advanced intelligent driving functions represented by high-speed/city NOA will become a crucial competitive point for independent brand passenger cars in the next 3-5 years, with gradual integration of vehicle-road-cloud becoming standard and city-wide connectivity.
"It can be said that new energy vehicles are an outstanding practice in China's 'high-level opening to the outside world' field. Currently, over 95% of the value of Tesla Model 3 comes from parts supplied by Chinese vendors. As new technologies, products, production methods, and business models accelerate their application, Chinese enterprises' innovation and market competitiveness will be fully stimulated, continuously driving global win-win development. Therefore, the depth and breadth of international cooperation will continue to increase in the future," Zhang Yongwei concluded.