​​Ouyang Minggao: Under the Wave of New Energy, Five 10-Trillion-Yuan-Level Industries Will Emerge Over the Next 10 to 30 Years​

Ouyang Minggao: Five 10-Trillion-Yuan Industries Will Emerge from the New Energy Wave Within 10–30 Years​​

​​Keynote Speech by Ouyang Minggao, Vice Chairman of China EV100 and Academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, at the China EV100 Forum (2025)​​

​​Part 1: Market Restructuring from the 2021–2025 Powertrain Electrification Revolution​​

China established its pure-electric drive technology transition strategy in 2009, launching the "Ten Cities, Thousand Vehicles" demonstration project. Subsidies for new energy passenger vehicles began in 2010, adopting a "two-pronged approach" (focusing on buses and micro-EVs). In 2014, President Xi Jinping proposed the "New Energy Vehicle Powerhouse Strategy," ushering in new entrants targeting luxury and economy EVs. By 2018, EV sales reached over 1 million annually but stagnated due to cost pressures and competition from ICE vehicles.

The turning point came in 2021 with breakthroughs in plug-in hybrid (PHEV) technology and lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries. In 2022, PHEVs surged, and by 2023, PHEVs (including range-extended EVs) accounted for 40% of new EV sales, with pure EVs at 60%. By 2025, PHEVs are projected to reach 50%, dipping to 40% by 2030, after which pure EVs will reclaim dominance.

​​Key Impacts of Electrification:​​

1. ​​Market Structural Shift​​: The convergence of technological maturity (e.g., LFP batteries, PHEVs), market readiness (entry into mainstream sedan segments), and policy support (extended subsidies) ignited exponential growth.
2. ​​Product Evolution​​: From durable, slow-evolving ICE vehicles to rapidly iterated, fashion-driven EVs, intensifying competition and innovation.
3. ​​Marketing Revolution​​: In the era of social media, user experience and viral information dissemination are reshaping traditional marketing.
4. ​​Market Transition​​: From incremental growth to zero-sum competition between EVs and ICE vehicles, requiring strategic foresight and agility.

​​Part 2: Intelligence Revolution and Mode Competition (2025–2030)​​

​​Technological Drivers​​:

• ​​Autonomous Driving (AD)​​: Highway NOA (Navigate on Autopilot) has matured; urban NOA is poised for mass adoption.
• ​​AI and DeepSeek Innovations​​:
  • Open-source large language models (LLMs) democratize AI access.
  • Pure reinforcement learning reduces data dependency.
  • Mixed-expert architectures cut computational costs.
  • Data quality optimization enhances reliability.
• ​​Impact​​:
  • Reduced monopolies, accelerated adoption of mature-node chips, and AI agent proliferation across industries.

​​Intelligent Driving Pathways​​:

1. ​​BEV+Transformer​​: Bird’s-eye-view perception enables holistic environmental understanding.
2. ​​End-to-End LLMs​​: Transition from modular rule-based systems to unified AI-driven decision-making.
3. ​​VLM Integration​​: Semantic reasoning bridges vision and language for safer, context-aware AD.
4. ​​Vision-Language-Action Loops​​: Closed-loop systems integrating perception, language, and control.

​​Mode Competition​​:

1. ​​Strategic Models​​:
   • BYD’s vertical integration (vehicles, batteries, AI).
   • Traditional automakers’ dual-track strategies (ICE + EV).
   • Huawei’s software-defined ecosystem (HarmonyOS).
   • Internet companies’ closed-loop ecosystems (Xiaomi, NIO).
   • State-owned enterprises’ hybrid reforms.
   • Battery-swap models (NIO, CATL).
2. ​​Survival Imperative​​: Learning agility and cognitive flexibility are critical. Enterprises must evolve into "learning organisms" to thrive in the AI era.

​​Part 3: Energy Low-Carbonization Revolution (2030–2035)​​

​​Strategic Choices​​:

• ​​Energy Synergy​​: EVs must integrate energy低碳化 (low-carbon energy) to avoid market contraction. Without energy innovation, EVs risk becoming obsolete.

​​Technological Milestones​​:

1. ​​Solid-State Batteries​​:
   • Sulfide-based electrolytes and high-nickel cathodes targeting 400 Wh/kg energy density (2027–2028 pilot production; 2030 mass production).
   • Lithium-metal anodes for 500 Wh/kg batteries (2030–2035, contingent on AI-driven material R&D).
2. ​​Perovskite Photovoltaics​​:
   • Semi-transparent, flexible modules for vehicle-integrated solar (2030 industrialization), boosting onboard generation to 10,000 km/year.
3. ​​Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) Interaction​​:
   • Grid-balancing tool for renewable-heavy grids.
   • Residential energy storage solution for urban high-rises.
   • Nationwide V2G pilots in 9 cities (2024).
4. ​​Transport-Energy Integration​​:
   • Solar highways with photovoltaic-canopy charging stations.
   • "Vehicle-energy-road-cloud" synergy (State Council initiative).

​​Future Industrial Landscape​​:

1. ​​New Energy Base​​: Photovoltaics, wind, lithium batteries (current: ¥3.5T; 2030: ~¥10T).
2. ​​EV Industry​​: Global sales of 30 million units by 2035, with pure EVs dominating 70% of new sales.
3. ​​Full Electrification​​: Trains, ships, aircraft, agriculture machinery, robots, smart roads.
4. ​​Smart Zero-Carbon Energy​​: Integrated systems (transport-energy-road-cloud, power-grid-load-storage, etc.).
5. ​​Green Hydrogen​​: Driven by EV infrastructure needs. By 2060, demand may hit 100–170 million tons/year, generating ¥2–3.4T in value.

​​Conclusion​​:
The convergence of intelligent and green revolutions presents unprecedented opportunities. President Xi’s strategy for new energy vehicles and carbon neutrality will be realized through sustained innovation and systemic collaboration. China EV100 remains committed to advancing this vision. Thank you.