■ Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of China EV100
introduction:
Recently, Zhang Yongwei, vice chairman and secretary general of China Electric Vehicle Committee of 100 People, was invited to attend the third International Symposium Across the Oil Era held by the Energy Research Institute of Peking University, and released the theme report of "Development Trend and Policy Outlook of the New Energy Vehicle Industry". In the report, Zhang Yongwei focused on the 10 important development trends worthy of the attention of the new energy vehicle industry in the next three to five years, and gave corresponding policy suggestions on the basis.
10 key trends for the development of the new energy vehicle industry in the next 3-5 years
1. The global development of new energy vehicles has entered an irreversible fast lane
The only direction of global automobile development is new energy, or electric, which has become the consensus of all countries and enterprises around the world. In the past, many countries were controversial and swayed about this, while China's new energy vehicle industry has been growing to a new level. After recent years of development, the irreversible situation of new energy has been basically formed.
At present, the penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China has exceeded 10%, that is, the proportion of electrification in the automobile increment is more than 10%, and it is expected to exceed 30% by 2025. Penetration in the United States, Europe and other countries is also growing, especially in Northern Europe, where Norway accounts for nearly 100% of new electric car sales. Of course, the technical route of electrification in different countries is different. China is mainly pure electricity, Europe is mainly plug-in, and Japan is mainly weak mixing.
2. China will remain ahead for a long time
Based on the research forecast of the Committee of 100, the annual sales of electric vehicles in China will exceed 5 million in 2022 and at least 7 million in 2025, with an optimistic estimate of 9-10 million. From 1 million to 10 million vehicles, in just a few years, this development speed has created the "most" in the global new energy industry. The ownership of new energy vehicles, the growth rate and the industrial scale driven by them were unimaginable in the past. Take power batteries as an example. By 2025, China's installed battery capacity will reach 600 GWh, the largest in the world.
3. Small and medium-sized cities and rural areas will become the new market growth points of new energy vehicles
In the past, consumers in small and medium-sized cities and rural areas often chose fuel-powered cars for their first cars. Entering the stage of mobile rapid development, the first car of consumers will be very likely to be a new energy vehicle. This will become a breakout point of China's electric market after the large cities in the next 3-5 years, and become one of the most important areas in the future market increment. This will play a huge role in reducing carbon emissions and improving mobile mobility in third-tier and fourth-tier cities and rural areas.
4. China's electric vehicles have really entered the stage of market competition
2021 will be a watershed year for China's electric vehicle industry. From the perspective of the market competition pattern, all the fiscal subsidies will be withdrawn in 2022, and all car companies will be at the same starting line of the same policy, and the competition among car companies is bound to be more intense. After the withdrawal of subsidies, new listed models will also appear in a cluster, especially for foreign brands. From 2022 to 2025, China's new energy vehicle market will enter the stage of a large number of new models and new brands emerging together.
Different from the characteristics of the development of the new energy vehicle market in the past decade, the market competition will enter the real stage of great waves. In the past, production capacity and brands that grew on subsidies and lacked competitiveness will face great challenges at this stage. Some production capacity will be accelerated and some brands will disappear.
5. Electric and intelligent vehicles are officially integrated
The theme of the transformation of the auto industry over the past decade has been electrification. In the next stage, the theme of change will be the intelligence based on electrification. The popularization of electrification is driven by intelligence. Pure electric vehicles will not become the selling point of the market, and only more intelligent vehicles are the focus of market competition. On the other hand, only electric vehicles can be more completely embedded in intelligent technology, and the best carrier of intelligent technology is the platform of electric technology. Therefore, on the basis of electrification will accelerate the generation of intelligence, "two" in the car will formally meet the body.
6. The energy revolution and the automobile revolution will achieve substantive synergy
With the implementation of "dual-carbon", energy-side changes will make electric vehicles green and use real renewable energy. At the same time, new energy vehicles can be connected to the power grid through the vehicle network interaction. The ideal model of wind power, photovoltaic, energy storage, electric vehicles and smart grid will be realized ahead of schedule. In the next 3-5 years, technology and policies will further support the greening of electric vehicles, and the small scope pilot will gradually move to the track of large-scale development, and the energy revolution and automobile revolution will truly achieve substantial synergy.
7. Supply chain has become the development bottleneck and an important competitiveness of automobile enterprises
Low carbonization is the first big challenge facing the automotive supply chain. Under the vision of global carbon neutrality, almost all vehicle enterprises and parts industries highly pay close attention to and rely on the reform of the supply chain. How to achieve green, low carbon or net zero emissions in the supply chain is a problem that enterprises must solve. The timetable for carbon neutrality of large auto companies will be only 10-20 years before 2035 or 2040, when there will be net zero emissions of the whole industrial chain will be achieved. This means that not only the vehicle manufacturing process, but also from the production of upstream parts to logistics and transportation to achieve net zero emissions.
Intelligence is the second challenge facing the automotive supply chain, especially for chips. In 2021, the global auto industry will cut production by about 10 million vehicles due to a chip supply shortage, with China cutting production by an average of 20 percent. Supply chain is a key threshold for the future development of electric vehicles and smart vehicles. This supply chain is global, not only influenced by their own strategy, but also by international and other external factors. In particular, the epidemic, trade disputes between major countries, technology competition, shipping, etc. will affect the change of the supply chain of the automobile industry.
8. The pace of new energy vehicle technology innovation will be significantly accelerated, and the full-stack electrification of automobile products will be open
The outbreak of the market will stimulate a new wave of automotive technology innovation. In the past, the main problem troubling the marketization of new energy vehicles was the cost. After the withdrawal of subsidies in 2022, technology will become the core factor in the competition between new energy vehicles and fuel vehicles. The progress of technology makes the new energy vehicles basically have the economic advantage of competing with the fuel vehicles of the same level, and truly usher in the inflection point of the industry.
Due to the economic advantages, the development speed of high-end electric brands is very fast, and NIO has entered the market of BMW and Mercedes-Benz at the same price. In the A0 market, especially the electric vehicle market of less than 50,000 yuan, its cost performance also exceeds that of fuel vehicles. Thanks to advances in technology, especially battery technology, the advantages of "the" cheapest car "and" the "most expensive car" are already obvious. In the next few years, the focus of the industry competition will be focused on the "middle" market of about 200,000 yuan, and gradually form new advantages.
9. Electric driving technology drives the rapid innovation of business models
After the automobile electrification enters the real marketization stage, it will drive a large number of business model innovation. For example, optical storage and charging integration mode, power changing mode, battery banking mode, etc.
10. Infrastructure supporting facilities will gradually complement and derived new business forms of the integration of the three networks
The infrastructure in the era of fuel vehicles is only gas stations and gas filling stations. Due to the development of electric vehicles, the energy infrastructure will undergo major changes in the future. Charging, power changing electricity, fast charging, slow charging, mobile battery charging, hydrogenation, and so on, will constitute an integrated infrastructure. This will be a major highlight of the future electric development, but also the hot spot of industry investment.
Six suggestions for the future of industrial development
1. Subsidy regression should be stable and predictable. In the stage of the rapid development of automobile electrification, the policy should maintain the appropriate stability and predictability. Subsidy reductions in 2022 is necessary, but it is best not to make high-frequency adjustments. Exit by the end of the year rather than an early exit in the middle of the year is the common expectation of many parties.
2. The subsidy can be supported by double credits. Double points is the most important policy to boost the electrification of vehicles after the subsidy decline. Continuing to optimize the double points policy has a huge impact on the industry. The focus of the optimization in 2022 is to further increase the proportion and allow points trading. At the same time, to expand the scope of passenger vehicles, trucks and commercial vehicles can also be included.
3. Including cars in the carbon trading system. Making the carbon policy restrain the auto industry can also encourage cars to become renewable and green.
4. Support is on the user side. After the withdrawal of car purchase subsidies, they can give support in car use. In particular, in the field of infrastructure construction of new energy vehicles and charging and changing electricity, subsidies will be given to builders and users to make the use cost lower.
5. Make non-monetary policies. In some cities, new energy vehicles with no restrictions, no restrictions, the implementation of special lanes, priority parking and other non-monetary policy support.
6. Encourage and support pioneering cities and enterprises. This includes encouraging pilot provincial cities to comprehensively promote electrification, encouraging pilot enterprises to take the lead in achieving zero carbon, and encouraging pilot factories to achieve net emissions or zero carbon supply chain.